Belief Constraint in Policy Disagreement Sources of Animosity
Policy Disagreement: Diverging Views on Policies
Ideology: It’s more than just disagreement on many issues
You never have complete information about someone else’s beliefs
Belief Constraint: The ability to predict the beliefs of others changes significantly
Disagreement on observed and assumed beliefs
Ideological and Non-Ideological Disagreement
| Constraint | High | Low | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideologue | Less Aligned | Less Opinionated | |
| Political issue 1 | Liberal | Liberal | Liberal |
| Political issue 2 | Liberal | Liberal | No attitude |
| Political issue 3 | Liberal | Conservative | Liberal |
| Political issue 4 | Liberal | Conservative | Liberal |
| Political issue 5 | Liberal | Liberal | No attitude |
| Constrained (N) | 5 (of 5) | 3 (of 5) | 3 (of 5) |
Conversian-Conversian
| Profile A | Profile B |
|---|---|
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Conservative | Liberal |
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Conservative | Liberal |
Downsian-Downsian
| Profile A | Profile B |
|---|---|
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Liberal | Conservative |
Conversian-Conversian
| Profile A | Profile B |
|---|---|
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Conservative | Liberal |
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Conservative | Liberal |
Similar-minded
| Profile A | Profile B |
|---|---|
| Conservative | Conservative |
| Conservative | Conservative |
| Conservative | Conservative |
| Conservative | Conservative |
Downsian-Downsian
| Profile A | Profile B |
|---|---|
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Liberal | Conservative |
| Liberal | Conservative |
Disinterested
| Profile A | Profile B |
|---|---|
| Liberal | No Attitude |
| Liberal | No Attitude |
| Liberal | No Attitude |
| Liberal | No Attitude |
Left-hand side types of disagreement remain unexplored
Belief structures of moderates
Figure 2: Correlates of Respondent’s Opinionatedness and Belief Alignment
Figure 2: Correlates of Respondent’s Opinionatedness and Belief Alignment
Figure 2: Correlates of Respondent’s Opinionatedness and Belief Alignment
Figure 2: Correlates of Respondent’s Opinionatedness and Belief Alignment
Prediction when policy disagreement == 0
Fully opinionated vignette
Respondent Ambivalent: -4.4 per ambivalent attitude
Prediction when policy disagreement == 0
Fully opinionated vignette
3/8 ambivalent vignette
Vignette ambivalence: -6.7 per ambivalent attitude
Actual disagreement: - 9.2 per policy divergence
Centrists do not like Centrists
Full alignment (Downsians)
Full alignment (Downsians)
Full disconnection (Conversians)
apathy between Conversians, unless they disagree a lot
dislike of all but a small in-group for Downsians
Abortion, Guns, Immigration
Sexual Harassment, Racial Gap in Homeownership
Attentiveness to issues
Belief structures matter for polarization
Belief alignment exacerbates animosity
Centrism and indecisiveness are often punished
Next steps
Mechanism (constraint, predictions and assumed disagreement)